Hotels vs. Short-Term Rentals with Issac Callazo

In this week's episode, Jamie sits down with Isaac Collazo, VP of Analytics at STR. Isaac is a veteran in the hotel industry and has worked for various major hotel brands over the years. The two discuss the differences between hotels and short-term rental companies, as well as their future prospects.

Isaac notes that the hotel industry is starting to normalize, with metrics approaching their 2019 levels. Demand is only 1.6% lower year-to-date compared to 2019, and daily room bookings are just under 3.6 million, similar to figures from that year. Occupancy stands at 63%, rate growth is returning to normal, and seasonal travel patterns are resurfacing. Although outbound U.S. travel currently exceeds inbound travel and business travel hasn't fully recovered, the trends are positive.

A major concern on everyone's mind is the potential impact of a recession. Isaac believes that due to current interest rates, we may see limited supply growth over the next 3-4 years. While he anticipates a slowdown in business travel, he doesn't expect it to decline significantly. Even in the event of a recession, Isaac's forecast still predicts an increase in RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) for the next three years.

The industry is ever-changing, but Jamie and Isaac share their forecasts for the future of both vacation sectors.

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Economic and STR Industry Risks with Bram Gallagher

In this week's episode, Jamie sits down with Bram Gallagher, a fellow economist here at AirDNA. With nearly a decade of experience as a travel economist, Bram helps us navigate the potential challenges facing both our industry and the broader economy as we move into the latter half of the year.

Hurricane season is upon us, and we delve into how these natural disasters have historically impacted markets, as well as their current effects. Bram notes that while these events can be highly localized, the ongoing impact of climate change is making recovery in certain areas more prolonged. This has led to increased hesitancy to invest or visit affected regions, and has also driven up insurance costs.

Another looming challenge is the potential government shutdown at the end of the month. At the time of recording, there's no budget agreement in sight, which could create a host of issues if not resolved. Additionally, the resumption of student loan repayments could put a damper on travel spending, with average monthly payments hovering around $300 for those who need to settle these debts.

Lastly, we touch on the ever-changing regulations in our industry. Most notably, Airbnb listings in New York will no longer be available for stays shorter than 30 days, a change that could significantly impact hosts and the local tourism economy.

While risks are inherent in any economy or industry, Jamie and Bram believe these challenges could be relatively minor and that the overall landscape remains robust.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane

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