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Earnings Reports, Interest Rates, and the Prioritization of Travel | Episode 33 | STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA

Jamie Lane sits down with Mariah Kamei this week to talk about STR trends for April. Based on Q1's earnings, travel has proven to be resilient despite the current economic climate, and the data shows that consumers continue to prioritize spending on travel over all other things. According to Expedia's earnings, we have now doubled Q1 of 2019's booking revenues which were pre-pandemic levels. Despite those numbers, we've seen another month of declining occupancy, 14 months of declining occupancy YOY. We are seeing demand up 12% on STRs and Travel and increasing listings. With the mixed bag of news around the industry, demand remains strong.

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane

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Connect with Mariah:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mariah-kamei

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Transcript

00:00.00

Mariah

Oh my goodness. Oh you're starting who's starting you start you start? you do it? Do it hit it hit me.

00:00.20

strdatalab

Hello up. Sorry. Now you start is.

00:14.82

Mariah

Ah I was just going to say oh my goodness Jamie Lane which I think is what I say every episode and then you always yell at me about how I didn't actually introduce us or what we're doing so for you this one time I will say welcome. To the Sdr Data lab by Air Dna I am joined today by my co-host the one. The only the most fabulous chief economist I know Jamie Lane Vp of research hello Jamie Lane how are you today.

00:47.27

strdatalab

Was that the actual starter we we we starting that again.

00:51.60

Mariah

Yeah, now oh did you I mean? what's it baby we are We do this live.

00:56.89

strdatalab

All right? Let's let's start. Go.

01:03.85

Mariah

Welcome to the Str Data lab by airdna it is I mariah kimay your ah faithful co-host and I am joined today by the one. The only ah the economist with the mostest. Jamie Lane V P of research. Ah at Air Dna obviously Jamie how the heck are you man I feel like there's been a lot in the news these days about airbnb and and biz they did. There's summer release.

01:33.56

strdatalab

Yeah I know was it was a a big month I guess for Airbnb in may they had their a summer release. They released their financials and it's ah a.

01:49.56

strdatalab

Ah, yeah, was isn't it an okay month. Ah I'm.

01:51.88

Mariah

Yeah, well yeah I mean well yeah, let's talk about the earnings. What were what were you were where were you going to go with this.

02:01.96

strdatalab

No, um and we can. We can definitely jump into the earnings like we actually had airbnb. We had ah Expedia we had booking um all give their earnings in the in the past couple weeks um and ah, it was a month ah or a month of just every single company talked about the health of the travel economy. They talked about the ah sort of resiliency of the consumer and how consumers continue to prioritize spend on travel. Above all other things and we saw that with um expedium bookings results which were very strong of booking I had amazing growth and in nights 45% year over year um

02:56.16

Mariah

Crazy.

02:57.77

strdatalab

Really good growth for Expedia and their and and verbo and then airbnb in particular came out as we're recording yesterday ah nights were up 19% year of year booking value up 18% and one of my favorite stats. Like when you look at revenue and now booking value. It has had over doubleubd since pre pandemic levels. So the amount of revenue amount of dollar volume getting booked the platform in q one was double what it was in Q one 2019 so ah and real show of.

03:18.60

Mariah

Great. Wow.

03:32.20

Mariah

Crazy Oh my goodness you're right? They do just kind of stack up their earnings one after the other it's almost like they coordinate these things I don't know.

03:36.12

strdatalab

Resiliency there.

03:46.27

strdatalab

Um, like earnings season. Um.

03:48.61

Mariah

Yeah, or is it like a quarterly thing I've heard I think you've told me before there's like a quarterly aspect. Um, well very very interesting to see ah 1 of our predictions come true so far which is that travel demand would maintain itself despite any economic headwind.

03:52.82

strdatalab

Yeah, yeah.

04:06.83

Mariah

Um, what I thought was super interesting about the earnings for airbnb in particular and I I think this is obviously I got to ask you what this is all about um is that they had ah what to your point seemingly looked and sounded like a good earnings report and then their stock Dropped. What is what's up with that. How does that work explain to me economist is explain.

04:27.29

strdatalab

Um, yeah, ah so the the whole thing about their their stock dropping and it dropped like I think. Ten fifteen percent overnight and as we sit here today. It's down pretty so um, ah down about 10% for the day was all around their Ford guidance so wall street had been expecting. Um. Sort of a continuation of the q 1 trends in terms of knights booked so q one was up 19 wall street was expecting another maybe eighteen nineteen percent and they guided that it was going to be ah, probably below 12%

05:13.56

Mariah

I am.

05:15.22

strdatalab

Ah, so that is um, a significant pullback um in the growth rate. Ah they sort of called out that it was because of strong bookings last year and we're coming out of sort of lockdowns.

05:20.90

Mariah

Have.

05:28.25

Mariah

Got it.

05:31.68

strdatalab

Ah, the sort of oakron wave and in Q one ah europe really started opening up in q 2 in advance of the summer travel season. So some tough comps that they're growing against I do not see this as ah, really indicative of ah.

05:43.94

Mariah

Right.

05:50.94

strdatalab

Airbnb or travel demand or anything like that sort of showing cracks or weakness I think it's I'm entirely I'm sort of predictable given the sort of strong growth that we saw last year and coming up against those tough comps.

06:04.10

Mariah

Yeah I make sense. It's it's more more of the same don't Index off the high right.

06:12.57

strdatalab

Yeah I mean they're they're still expecting I'm roughly one hundred and 16000000 nights being booked compared to q one. We saw a 21000000 so that's so that's a that's a lot of demand. Um.

06:23.34

Mariah

Got it. It feels like it and but any I mean anytime you say millions I think it's a lot of anything but yeah and you get in a hundred millions I don't know.

06:34.10

strdatalab

Um, yeah I mean the the number of viewers we get. That's that's close to the millions right.

06:42.90

Mariah

Very full. Yes, yeah, a hundred percent a hundred percent hey we got hey we got ah we got over a million registered users baby. We know that.

06:54.30

strdatalab

Ah, the other thing that I thought was interesting are 2 more things 1 they sort of called out both in their summer release and when we went into in their earnings call. They're sort of relaunching of airbnb rooms sort of private rooms on a.

07:09.50

Mariah

Right? sp right.

07:12.24

strdatalab

The anticipation if we do go into recession or at least a week spell um over the next year or 2 there could be a renewed focus from the on the part of the guest on budget and affordable accommodation. Um, a realization of how much. Ah, the cost of travel has gone up over the past three years and trying ah to more proactively provide. Ah affordable accommodation. So the average adr for a private room around the world is $67 and I remember when I was traveling on airbnb ten years ago for $67 a night. Um, it was great. Um, and I'm I I may even tried again on 1 of my next trips ah is I have you ever stayed in a private room with someone.

07:57.27

Mariah

Yeah, yes, well I was going to say back in my day I think it was $25 a night. So I mean clearly inflation has impacted the rate. But yeah I mean you really can't beat I'd say $67

08:07.50

strdatalab

That.

08:16.11

Mariah

Ah night and it's nice to see airbnb you know, potentially kind of getting back to its roots a little bit right? which was as a value potential value option for travelers. So hopefully that you know opens a world for them for new guests and again encourages other folks to. Relist their rooms I was actually at a conference or at a small group in Denver a couple weeks ago and a lot of the people in that group were sort of complaining that their rooms have kind of fallen off to the wayside right? They are renting out private rooms in their homes. So yeah and I think that's nothing but good news.

08:47.27

strdatalab

We yeah, my wife and I rented out a private room in our house for close to 4 years and we loved it like all the people coming in like um, we did. We did it up until we had kids.

08:50.78

Mariah

Super interesting.

08:57.65

Mariah

Right? You met such cool people.

09:04.26

strdatalab

And then ah we converted the room to a nursery. Ah, but when we were when we were even doing ah um, some Europe travel a few years ago we we stayed in a private room. Um, and it was great. So.

09:06.20

Mariah

That's fair.

09:18.26

Mariah

Oh my gosh italy.

09:20.25

strdatalab

Ah, excited to see that renewed focus and what they're going to do there. Ah and then the other piece was they ah they broke out some of their data for just the Us ah and given sort of the Us focus of a lot of our research like that was that was interesting to see.

09:37.36

Mariah

Um, yeah.

09:39.22

strdatalab

Ah, they called out um revenue was up ah 13 % in the us in q 1 ah, but that was down from 19% growth in um q four and just for some context since we're going to talk about us trends. So in our sort of overall industry data set. We saw revenue growth up 19.7 in q 4 so almost exactly the same of what airbnb reported um up sixteen point seven in q one. So maybe they gave up a little bit of share.

10:05.37

Mariah

Aha.

10:15.47

strdatalab

In terms of revenue and in q one ah and then we saw it deceleate even further though in April so April revenue was only up 14% ah year of year.

10:16.90

Mariah

There.

10:28.44

Mariah

Gotcha Well, it's always nice to see when we are aligned with what they're saying oh always great. That's what we're striving for. Yeah, it's It's almost like we're reporting on the exact same numbers. Yes, it is all right? got.

10:33.49

strdatalab

Um, and it's almost like we're reporting on this thing.

10:44.50

strdatalab

Um.

10:44.86

Mariah

Just in case, we've just confused the audience we are reporting on the same numbers. That's why it's It's good that they match. Ah, ah, ah well that is yeah well interesting than the focus on us data and yeah, that's I mean apart from everyone else I think that was super exciting for us to see them.

10:51.55

strdatalab

Um, ah.

11:02.12

strdatalab

Um, yeah.

11:03.40

Mariah

Dig into that specific mark a little more well well you you mentioned that we also report on these things. So yeah, you know we this is our this is our health check I'd say our monthly health check, especially for the Us we talk a lot about that.

11:12.65

strdatalab

Yeah.

11:19.64

Mariah

What are the numbers telling you Jamie Lane how healthy are we are we are we good? Are we good? Are we okay.

11:27.38

strdatalab

I Think okay is a good word. Ah it's It's not great. Yeah mixed bag. It's ah I It's not all, um, but puppies and roses or whatever the ah ah.

11:29.29

Mariah

Next tag.

11:39.47

Mariah

Well I think it's rainbows and sunshine. But I also like puppies and roses so that works for me.

11:48.13

strdatalab

But not all rainbows and sunshine. So I'll start with the bad news and then move towards the good news as so ah, starting with occupancy.

11:48.53

Mariah

So yeah, hit me with the bad news I like that.

12:01.32

strdatalab

And we saw another month of declining occupancy. So for those that have been keeping along. We're now at fourteen consecutive months of declining occupancy on a year-by-year basis. Ah so ah, April was down 5% year of year and that compares to April of last year that was down three and a half percent so sort of further down off of already down figures from from last year adrs were only up one and a half percent ah so if we go back to April of last year Adrs were up 11% and that was sort of the leadup to the sort of massive inflation figures that we were seeing so adr still positive but barely and when you break out to different chain scales in different location types.

12:45.43

Mariah

Got it.

12:51.82

strdatalab

Ah, we definitely are seeing more and more areas where Adrs are are turning negative. Um, as sort of hosts react to the new competition ah react to falling occupancies now two consecutive years of falling occupancy and they're starting to discount to make sure. Ah, they're getting their fair share of booking activity. Um expected. Um, but I'm still a a measure of weakness that we're seeing in the industry at the moment and then ah ad r is falling are.

13:13.30

Mariah

Got it got it? Yep that makes sense.

13:29.35

strdatalab

Occupancy following more than ad r are increasing that means rev par revenue available rental was down three point seven so that's like the average listing Yup is now earning less money less revenue on a pro listing basis than they were last year

13:35.18

Mariah

No cut. That's your every here.

13:46.21

Mariah

Got it.

13:47.91

strdatalab

It's down about 4% not terrible and we are forecasting full year that reparre is going to be down past two months had been around flat with no change from the prior year. So I we're sort of that forecast. Well and it's always. Tough to forecast negative. We like to give people the info that they need to budget accordingly and if you're going into the year expecting that you're going to have another year of decent growth. Um, and that that.

14:06.46

Mariah

Right.

14:23.17

strdatalab

Shouldn't necessarily be the case and we expect further declines in rev far throughout the year um

14:27.44

Mariah

I think that's such an important point to to bring up right? like just like you just need to know there. You know like it's better to know than not to know we don't want to be ostriches with our heads in the sand and that's the benefit of you know, working with air Dna. So again and it and helps you plan ahead right? It helps you plan ahead in terms of how you're going to look at your own Adrs how you're going to sort of measure your occupancy what you can do to bolster your listing what you can do to cut costs all the rest.

14:59.49

strdatalab

Yeah, so let's talk about some of the good news. Can we I hate can you tell I Just like talking about the bad news. Um, yeah, yeah, the optimist in me. Yeah, so ah, demand was up.

15:04.46

Mariah

Ah, finally finally.

15:11.25

Mariah

Ah, yeah, okay I'll allow it. Let's talk good news. Yeah hit me.

15:18.10

strdatalab

Twelve and a half percent um so we're continuing to see more and more demand for travel and short term rentals. Ah so and that's that's great. Um, if you look back at an hotel industry. They're seeing demand and up. And maybe four or five percent year over year so short term rentals are continuing to pull back share in terms of overall um, share of spend and share of nights that people are are spendingning outside of their their house um, available listing still growing so year by year. They're up.

15:36.76

Mariah

Okay.

15:55.68

strdatalab

ah ah eighteen point nine percent or up 19% and that is slowing and so while 18% 19% doesn't sound great. Um, as of ah and at the peak supply was going 26%

15:58.58

Mariah

Wow.

16:13.81

strdatalab

Last month it was growing 20% so we're continuing on that decline. Um, we are seeing um and we're still seeing a lot of new listings being added but not at the level that they're being added and last year so we expect further. Ah, declines in the growth rate going forward. Um, so our expectation is by your end we're we're at about 10% growth ah to where we're at and roughly 19% now so that should further decelerate over time.

16:46.93

Mariah

Yeah, that's maybe some good news for saturation or oversaturation in submarkets.

16:54.81

strdatalab

Yep, and then as I already said on revenue I was up 14% ah year every year a deceleration so that is one of the lowest reads we've seen ah since the recovery ah began for um. Coming out of the Pandemic. So and that's something we expect to further decelerate some ah but and yeah, it's um I guess it is what it is in terms of overall revenue Growth. So and demand.

17:14.79

Mariah

Gotcha.

17:29.56

strdatalab

Should hold up around 10% for the rest of the year um they'll sort of and meet the sort of falling supply growth where we expect once we get through the end of the year we're we're going to essentially be maintaining the occupancy levels we saw as of the end of last year um and then expectation for next year is maybe only and flat to slightly down but we'll be at um, as long as we're not in a significant recession then I think we're going to be at a more sustainable occupancy level going forward.

18:01.13

Mariah

Yeah, it's like well and even that's nice that is I'd say that's a little bit of good news right? where it's like there's a little bit ah less of this sort of like volatility right? and just like sort of slow and steady. Let's hope for that I think that always sounds Good. Um. And yeah I Thank you for contextualizing that 14% right? For revenue right? because it initially it sounds good right? Then he said? Well what was it before. Let's let's make sure we know so still positive. However.

18:29.77

strdatalab

You know, yeah and and once we get to sort of steady state and in the us. That's where in a lot of ways the the trends that are happening at the more local level start to become that much more interesting a pack full and if we're not We're not seeing those massive trends nationally nationally then um, some of the more interesting things are happening at the city city level and we definitely are seeing a lot of interesting things happening at the city level today. Um, and there's I'm still. And an acceleration in supply growth happening in a lot of the major cities around the us. Ah so markets like what I consider like some and midsize cities like Detroit Sacramento Oklahoma city Cincinnati Raleigh Durham

19:22.89

Mariah

Right.

19:27.18

strdatalab

Um, Houston Columbus and are some of the areas with the most supply growth happening in terms of um, sort of that mid to large market. Ah, and and those are.

19:36.81

Mariah

Got it.

19:42.52

strdatalab

Really interesting areas for me in terms of the growth of the short term rental industry given and there's not a lot of new hotels being added to those cities. Ah there is a lot of sort of Urban Suburban Revival happening new types of businesses as manufacturing starts to be on shore. Um.

19:50.37

Mariah

Right.

20:00.81

Mariah

Or hit.

20:02.42

strdatalab

Um, like new things going on in those areas that really do warrant more lodging supply and and potentially new investment. So and and be looking to call out more of those those type of areas going forward and. Where people should be looking to invest given the sort of changes we're seeing in these cities.

20:25.21

Mariah

Yeah I Love that I love and it's like that's what's what it's all about in terms of I think value that we can offer folks right? which is just to be get a little bit ahead of the trend right? Get a little bit ahead of what's going on I think we all do that every time I travel I'm like I should have invested in this Market. And years ago right? So it's like yeah use our data let us help you understand where the next new Market is going to be and yeah, all of these like yeah I'd say like suburban mid-sized City seems like there's such a ton of potential there. So lots of room to grow on supply Still lots of room to grow on Demand or lots of demand coming. Um, so and you know a lot of those places also still have somewhat affordable housing prices. Well speaking speaking of housing prices. You know that always gets me starting to think about interest rates. Um.

21:06.11

strdatalab

Um.

21:18.40

Mariah

And that gets me starting to think about macro economy things Mr. Economists what? what's what's happening there I I think I think the fed raised the rate again last week I I think they promise to not do it again. I don't know should we believe them? ah.

21:35.10

strdatalab

Yeah I am and my expectations are that the fed's done ah and ah and I that's in my mind, a good thing as long as inflation. Um, is under control. Ah there's no reason why the fed should have to raise interest rates I think they're going to pause for a few months ah get a sense of whether inflation continues. Its downward trajectory. Ah we know there's lots of aspects within the cpi calculation that are lagged like housing costs. And we see rents and have been coming down significantly. We see housing prices coming down significantly that should play into the inflation numbers. Um in the in the near term months and if that comes true I think it and we are clearly on a path where we could get to Let's say 3% inflation growth by the end of the year ah and while Drome Powell wasn't willing to admit it. Um I suspect that he'd be pretty happy with 3%

22:28.54

Mariah

Time.

22:41.57

Mariah

Ah, ah well, that's fair. That's his pre argument. Ah right.

22:43.87

strdatalab

Least I I thought I I hope he would um because and and this is my personal opinion now. Not I and the firm opinion or anything like that. But um, if and 3% inflation is something that the economy can deal with.

22:53.31

Mariah

Right.

23:01.26

strdatalab

Um, it's not going to cause the pain that six seven percent inflation did ah and it is not worth taking the economy into recession causing and potentially millions of jobs to be lost.

23:14.93

Mariah

And you.

23:20.20

strdatalab

To get from 3 to 2% if by the time we get to 3% we're not already in a recession from getting getting down to 3% inflation so ah my I yeah I've still got my fingers crossed that we can get to the end of the year

23:31.53

Mariah

We're using that pmmer approach so thought across man.

23:39.71

strdatalab

Ah, with 3% inflation without going into recession without um and my sort of barometer. There is unemployment getting above like four and a half percent given that we're at 3 3 point 4 I think most economists would say if we got more than a and. Point 5% increase so get over 4 in terms of unemployment that would sort of signal a recession I I think four and a half percent is probably ah ah a better sort of measure there. So if we get enough job loss or at least a not enough hiring or a few months of um.

24:14.65

Mariah

I.

24:19.27

strdatalab

Negatives there that I know gets us up there than and and we we probably have a bit more to worry about and the good thing for inflation then is if we're in a recessionary environment. That's a de also deflationary and it is probably going to bring inflation down. Much quicker and we could um that won't be that that will be the least of our worries if if we go into a recession.

24:47.40

Mariah

Well thank you for contextualizing all of that. Well I you know again I Trust you ah more than any other economist I know and I know so many. But no, thank you.

24:55.91

strdatalab

You and all your economist friends hanging out.

25:01.64

Mariah

Well, it'll be good because you know I'll be at some dinner party and I'll be like well you know I think 4% looks great and then they're goingnna be like Bri you don't know you're talking about ah ah, ah, um, but I go ahead.

25:15.85

strdatalab

Yeah, but we did see another strong month of employment 253000 jobs added ah and there were some revisions to prior months but I'd see revisions down on prior months like it's actually a good thing like we don't want. And this point in the economy job growth to be that strong. So ah, and maybe we're going to see even further revisions to this where it was like if it would have been printed one hundred and fifty Thousand new jobs at it in April and like that you might where I that that's a great number like.

25:33.71

Mariah

Right? right.

25:52.41

strdatalab

Not too hot, not too cold like but let's let's do one hundred and fifty Thousand Jobs two hundred and fifty Thousand jobs is still a bit strong given that the fed is trying to slow the economy they're trying to slow iring. Ah they're trying to slow wage growth. Ah, but.

25:56.75

Mariah

I like it. Right.

26:11.51

strdatalab

Generally ah given and how tight the Labor market is if someone wants a job. They can get a job.

26:19.31

Mariah

I like it I like it I The hey that's good news for me at everyone else out there. Um I I think this is you know I like this cold goldilocks and it really strikes me as like we're right, We're walking a tightrope here on the economy but we seem to be doing a pretty good job. Ah.

26:34.42

strdatalab

Yeah, you want to know what really worries me though and standing on this tight low.

26:36.65

Mariah

Ah, walking that tightrop.

26:42.28

Mariah

Tell me yes I do ah what if I'd said no no actually Jamie we're good. Ah oh my god this is a great way to get people to come back and listen again.

26:47.33

strdatalab

Ah, yeah, let's leave everyone in suspense I'll tell you next time on the Sdr Data lab

26:59.96

Mariah

And okay now I'm on board.

27:00.80

strdatalab

Yeah, so so do you know what happens on June Eighth think it's June eighth around June eighth

27:08.36

Mariah

Um, to the that's ah, that's an economy thing. Ah.

27:12.38

strdatalab

S sort of an economy thing. Yeah, there's a pretty big economy thing.

27:16.43

Mariah

Oh my God I I don't know I hope I hope listeners I Hope you are answering the question in your minds at least.

27:26.43

strdatalab

Yeah, so so that's the date and I think it might actually be even be a few days before that that if we don't raise the debt ceiling or suspend the debt ceiling then the us will default on its debt obligations and we will see some.

27:34.13

Mariah

Oh oh.

27:45.34

strdatalab

Some very scary things out there in the market and I suspect we'll see some scary things even in the lead up to it given the sort of brief brimanship between the republicans and Democrats and in congress. So ah, that definitely scares me that.

27:50.51

Mariah

You can have to it. Yeah.

27:58.20

Mariah

Oh my goodness. Okay, okay.

28:03.51

strdatalab

And as we're sort of walking this tight rope that in Washington and the political arena they're gonna be ah throwing cannon balls over the aisle and if we're not careful. We we could we could get knocked off and um I would I would hope. Ah, congress acts and acts quickly before real damage is done.

28:29.60

Mariah

Well I hope there's some congress people listening to this podcast. Um, but ah, a hundred percent I think so well and also hey.

28:33.20

strdatalab

I doubt that maybe maybe there's some that have a have a short term rentddle and ah in the Shenandoah Valley and like you know what? let's listen. Yeah.

28:47.59

Mariah

Psa Call your congressperson I I You just took me back to a time in my life where I would call them regularly to tell them how I felt about something we won't get into what but but yeah.

28:50.80

strdatalab

Um.

29:00.98

strdatalab

Um, that does not surprise me at all.

29:05.15

Mariah

It's a very cosharic if anyone wants to just kind of like yell out into the Void calling your congressmers or any other local government that yes, also a really great way to yell out into the void I Love Well yeah I'll plead out the void.

29:14.51

strdatalab

Um, or or starting a podcast.

29:23.77

strdatalab

Question me.

29:25.85

Mariah

Ah, um, but okay, well this is good I will Mark my calendar. Um, and yeah I know what the heck why do we these congresspeop these lawmakers us you know play in roulette with our lives come on guys just get it together bipartisanship. Let's work this out. Let's.

29:41.50

strdatalab

Yeah, yeah.

29:44.77

Mariah

Because I don't want if Jamie Lane's worried then I have to be worried guys. That's how this works unfortunately.

29:54.16

Mariah

Well well should we I like that we're kind of on a rollercoaster ride ah in this podcast in and of itself. But before I move on is there anything else on the economy that anyone should know I thought we should talk about something fun which is events.

30:07.15

strdatalab

Yeah, let's talk about something fun.

30:10.25

Mariah

Ah, so you my friend are going to New York New York City actually at the same time ironically that potentially the government will be defaulting on our loans. Um, but you're going to skift sdr forum I believe you're speaking out that event. Yes.

30:28.23

strdatalab

Yeah I'll be announcing our new forecasts for the industry at the skiff's short term rental forum. So yeah, it's going to be exciting I'll be on stage with our our Ceo. Ah Denny and we're going to be diving into. Ah, the forecasts. Hopefully I won't have to spend all night beforehand revising them if the government does default and we go into a massive recession I guess that's the risks with like releasing forecast they're they're subject to revision.

30:56.56

Mariah

Ah, yeah, yeah, that might be an all night project

31:04.94

strdatalab

Ah, but our our idea there and we've been doing it for the past sort of 2 years is im given the current economic outlook given and all the things happening in our industry. We want to give our listeners give our clients. Um, the tools that they need to plan for the year your years ahead um and so we'll be launching much more detailed forecasts. Ah, starting in June and they're going to be presented on stage live for the first time at the skiff short terminal forum.

31:40.70

Mariah

I like it. You heard it here first big big forecasts and predictions coming from Jamie Lane and the rest of air Dna um, and we will release those more broadly? Yes, so you can see them live on the stage. Of course if you're at the event but then afterwards. Um, you can catch them on airdna.co as well as I'm sure podcasts and other places available broadly an omni channel approach to announcing our news carrier pigeons smoke signals included.

32:11.37

strdatalab

Yeah, so maybe moving on to some not so happy news is ah Maria do you have something to share with our our listener audience.

32:24.36

Mariah

I do I do and yes I would say very very sad but also you know every every end of a chapter is the beginning of a new chapter. Um, so without burying the lead which fun fact is not spelled. L e a d it's actually l e d google it guys I'll put it in the show notes. Um I am I am I am departing from air Dna and unfortunately also departing from this podcast Jamie Lane and viewers and listeners. Um I just. You know for me I've had some opportunities as of late in my life personally to reflect on how finite time is how little of it we have and I've been cranking I've been going pretty nonstop um in my career and job-wise for about 15 years it's time for me to to just reset just to hit a little restart. Um, so I'm taking a small break and then I'm excited to open some new doors some new chapters for myself. Um, hopefully up sticking around in this industry I absolutely I've been in this industry for about 2 years it's been such a tremendously fun ride for me. Not only at air Dna. But yes at air Dna starting with our fabulous founder Scott Shatford my first verma excursion meeting you Jamie Lane getting to know all about supply and demand and occupancy and adr baby.

33:55.68

strdatalab

Um.

33:56.93

Mariah

Um, and all of all of the rest that came along with it. But I you know have also just had so much fun meeting so many of the wonderful folks in our industry I call it a small big industry. It's got so much heart I think what's really really cool about short term rental vacation rental. Um, industry in general is that you have these people that are really good at being hosts and welcoming people and creating experiences but you also have all these people that are really you know focused on the data and the performance and the numbers and so anyways, it's just been. It's been such a tremendously wild ride for me on on another note Jamie Lane you have been such a great partner in crime for me. Thank you you I think we started out a few months ago you said I'm going to make an economist out of you yet mariah and I think I don't know if I'm an economist yet but I can hold my own I can hold my own in a conversation at a dinner party about these things thanks to you. And I think you guys our listeners are going to continue to get that benefit from you. You're going to continue on on the podcast podcast is still going strong babies and you're going to get to hear from some new perspectives from our business from outside of our business. Um, and I think that's exciting. So yeah, that's the news. Baby.

35:14.48

strdatalab

Well mariah I know you know this. But and we're going to miss you on the Sdr Data lab and get yeah miss working with you on ah on a day to day basis I wish I had my man Manhattan here to cheers with you and in Scott on.

35:29.94

Mariah

Asked.

35:31.34

strdatalab

This journey we've gone through together. Ah, but I'm I'm committed to ah once you land a new new spot. Ah, have you back on if if you're in the industry and we can talk about the data and what you're seeing.

35:40.15

Mariah

Yeah, yes I better be.

35:50.20

strdatalab

And the view that you have from from where you're at which I'm sure would be um and given your knowledge of what we like to talk about um and wherever you end up would be very informative for listeners and an excuse for us to get back together and chat on air which I know we're going to want.

36:05.20

Mariah

Yeah, yeah, yes, yeah I like that you're like but have I No um firstly yes, why didn't we have manhattans. Yeah, anyways next time which there will be a next time because I would love that.

36:09.61

strdatalab

I know I want.

36:22.29

Mariah

Um, and I could you know always just drop in I don't know maybe I'll just start crashing your meetings that'd be fun, but.

36:28.97

strdatalab

Um, you you you know there's in link. Yeah.

36:30.80

Mariah

Ah, yeah, right? Ah, but yeah, this has been a tremendously fun ride I think we're I think all in all, we're going to wrap with just almost 40 episodes together on the podcast crazy awesome and then yeah, keep listening guys because you're going to get more of the good stuff from Jamie Lane um Jamie Lane and Co Jamie Lane and friends.

36:53.95

strdatalab

It yeah and for those of for our regular listeners Mariah will continue to show up on your feed for at least the next few weeks as she's ah recorded quite a few interviews with some amazing guests.

37:03.67

Mariah

Yes.

37:11.48

strdatalab

Ah, and stay tuned for those interviews and ah more from me and ah more with our new co-hosts in the summer ahead

37:21.13

Mariah

Oh my goodness. It's true I am going to haunt you from Beyond for a few more episodes. Ah, that's just my style. It's been great. It's been amazing.

37:24.56

strdatalab

Well more? Yeah,. It's been great. Ah, it's been Great. It's been amazing. Ah, we've loved having you um here and um, we we we'll see see you down the ride. Road.

37:44.75

Mariah

That's right like I like that one obviously see you on the other side see you down the road for sure Jamie Lane and I'd say as you like to say that's a podcast.

37:57.20

strdatalab

It's been a good one. Thanks.

37:59.94

Mariah

Bye Jamie.

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