Rising Markets, Popular Spring Break Destinations, And More! | Episode 24 | STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA
This week, Jamie and Mariah dive deep into the data while keeping things short and sweet. Despite February typically being the weakest month for demand, this past month has seen some interesting trends in the vacation rental industry. With a staggering 13 million nights stayed in February alone, demand was up YoY by 18%. However, occupancy was down YoY by 1.8%, indicating a significant increase in new listings — up 26% YoY. While some of this growth is due to the lengthy process of listing, it is primarily attributed to an influx of second homes that were purchased for remote work during COVID and are subsequently being listed to make a profit as workers return to in-person work environments. It's worth noting that there are currently 6 million second homes in the U.S., but only 1.5 million of them are listed on Airbnb and VRBO.
Switching gears to the economy, we've seen an incredible job listings growth of 311k in February alone. However, with discretionary spending being heavily dependent on job security, it's important to keep an eye on the deceleration of growth we're currently experiencing. Inflation has also decreased, with February's headline inflation sitting at 6% — down from previous months. We could potentially see a drop to 3% by the end of the year. As we gear up for spring break, it's interesting to note that nights booked have increased by 14.8% compared to January. The top markets for spring break include Orlando, Phoenix/Scottsdale, Gatlinburg, Panama City, and Miami. However, some rising stars for growth are the Jersey City/Newark areas, Chicago, The Hamptons, Boston, and Washington D.C.
Stay tuned for the new forecasting reporting from Jamie Lane.
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Read the Full Market Review:
https://www.airdna.co/blog/airdna-market-review-us-february-2023
Transcript
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February was just about 13 million nights,
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which if you had been keeping track,
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this is the lowest level
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in the past year.
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Do you want to talk about
some of the crazy stuff
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that happened?
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The countdown has started.
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Jamie Lane
We are going to challenge ourselves
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to make this the most snackable
episode ever for people today.
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How does that sound?
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The short term rental industry,
the economy, spring break
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and everything in between all the way
and then 30 minutes.
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Is that what you're talking about?
That's what I'm talking about, baby.
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Listen, people are busy.
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And also people have
spring break vacations to get to sleep.
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We got to make this easy for them.
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This is like
this needs to be like a commute distance.
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You know, I mean, like a nice little
package for you, our lovely audience.
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Oh, it's been a minute
since we've been together,
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so I'm just happy
that we're recording the two of us.
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Yeah. So it's.
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It's. It's been a little while.
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We've had some some great guests
on the podcast recently.
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Just in conferences, recently talking
with clients, getting out and about.
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But, and it's been maybe a little bit
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of a wild couple months
in the industry and the economy. A
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But it's
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I think like we were talking about
acceleration, like it's just go, go, go.
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That's the theme.
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Yeah, thanks. It's it accelerated.
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Things have escalated.
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I don't know.
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Well, wasn't anything in the news
last week.
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I mean, like nothing interesting
to read about.
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The other thing I wanted to start doing
at the beginning of the episodes,
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I probably should have mentioned it
is is any juicing ourselves again
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and for our listeners.
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So for those of you who don't know,
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I am Jamie Laing, VP of Research at rDNA.
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Oh, I love this.
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And yes,
I mean audience, we don't prepare.
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This is just a very authentic podcast.
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I, I am Mariah Carey.
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I am Jamie Lane's faithful sidekick.
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But in addition to that, and mostly here
for the laughs, I am also the V.P.
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of marketing.
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I do have a serious day job.
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But this is this is my fun time.
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So, yeah,
I don't want to talk about the hot girl.
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But I do want to talk about
what's going on in the industry. So.
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Well, let's.
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Hey, we're on the clock.
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All right, So let's talk about it.
You mentioned it.
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You're like, what is what is it?
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What is demand looking like?
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What does the future hold for us?
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Jamie Lynn. Help.
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So for those of you
that have been following along,
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I am we talk about sort of night stayed.
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Yeah February
was just about 13 million nights
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which if you had been keeping track
this is the lowest level
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in the past year but not to worry
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the year is is typically the weakest month
for demand during the year.
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I don't know about you,
but it is a little chilly here
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today in Atlanta.
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Wind and we have seen some wild weather
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around the country
that has been sort of messing with
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demand patterns,
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record snow in certain parts of the
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the West.
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I've seen photos of
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just scary is getting dumped in and people
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getting sort of buried in their homes
right now.
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And obviously, in some ways
that's great for for skiers.
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In other ways, it's it's
terrible for people actually trying to get
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to those rentals
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to actually go on their trips there.
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You know,
some very weak snow out we out east.
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I'm impacting different areas there.
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Maybe some some cooler than expected
wet weather in certain
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beach markets.
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So I'm some ups and downs.
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But overall demand was was still up
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year over year, up 18% in February.
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So we're still sort of riding
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the wave of of highs off of all the supply
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that's come on to the industry
over the past year.
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We've also continued the almost year
long decline in in occupancy.
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So occupancy was for down further 1.8%.
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And in February,
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that is a theme that we expect to continue
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on new listings
by continuing to sort of surprise
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to the upside available listings, up
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26% year over year. Wow.
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Which was a bit of an acceleration
from anyway.
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And man, it kills me to see that am great
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that people are continued
to invest Yeah in the market
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that we see
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new listings continue to come online.
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When we look back to last year
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March April, May was when we really saw
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the surge that sort of led
to an all the supply growth
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that we reported throughout 2022
very soon.
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It's going to be really interesting
as we sort of head into those months of
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do we sort of meet those levels,
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do we exceed them,
Do we start to come down?
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My expectation
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has and I think, well, we'll
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continue to be that
it starts to come down,
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but every single month
I keep getting surprised to the upside.
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Yeah, in terms of supply growth,
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we're going to be releasing
some updated forecasts.
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I'll probably
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talk about them on on the podcast
next month,
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but we'll be up upping our forecast
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for 2022 or 2023.
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For supply growth, we were at 9%,
I suspect were north of 12% for the year
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when those updated numbers come out.
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So it's yeah, it's
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and that that just makes it
that much harder
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when we look at
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how much demand our industry can
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absorb absorb. Yeah.
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And how big those occupancy declines
might be.
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So far the past few months
we've been averaging out around that 2%.
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Mark right of decline month over month.
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Yeah.
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And we're there in the summer.
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We're down 10%.
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I don't expect that we get back to the
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I'm see further 10% declines
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this summer
but I'm definitely further declines
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as we look out over the over
the next year.
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We love it.
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Well that is thank you.
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That was such a good succinct update.
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Couple of couple of key takeaways
there for me.
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Like you said
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in the
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last 11 months, it's the lowest
it's ever been for demand.
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That said, it's it's a short month,
only 28 days.
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And, you know, people
probably are kind of saving it,
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which we're going to talk about
in a minute for some spring travel.
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But you also mentioned the 1.8%,
I think, down for occupancy.
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And is that February
20, 22 versus February 20, 23?
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You'll love it.
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Well, Jamie, that was that's
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a good update and I love that
we're reserving the right to reforecast.
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We're like,
listen, we'll keep you updated.
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Things are changing.
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Do you think some of that supply
listing growth that maybe was a little bit
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more unexpected?
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I'm just thinking about how long it takes
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for somebody to get their property online.
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Like,
is it possible that that knock on effect
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is just sort of delayed a few months
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as people
that maybe purchased back in December
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are now finally getting their properties
online and up and running?
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And there's some of that
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I'm definitely.
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But what I think
and the theory I'm working with now on on
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why supply growth continues to sort of
move up is just
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and if you remember back to 2021
or maybe early 2022,
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there was just so many homes
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being bought, homes
being bought right home.
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And maybe you bought that second home
with the idea of
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I definitely want to use it in 2021, 2022
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for working remote and now with things
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I got it at maybe a two and a half,
3% interest rate.
00:09:04:04 - 00:09:04:17
Yeah.
00:09:04:17 - 00:09:07:20
Now things may be going back to normal
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for an office environment.
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Now considering like, hey,
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I'm short term
rental revenues are still and very strong
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and we I'm sort of
and that persistence at the peak
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we're still staying
and 30 40% higher than 2019 levels
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in terms of earning potential know
that there's real opportunity out there
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and people are maybe bringing those homes
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that they bought in prior year
and now deciding to to list them,
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which I know
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there there's 6,000,002nd homes out there
this year.
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And only 1.5 million.
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I'm listed on Airbnb in verbal in the U.S.
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So there's a huge state of supply
of available homes
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that could be listed on
any given day is regardless
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of what's happening in the investment
market of people sort of buying homes
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specifically to list on on
in the short term rental industry.
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All right.
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I love it. Well,
that was a good breakdown.
00:10:14:17 - 00:10:18:15
And again, just for folks
that was a 34% persistence
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at the peak, 34% in increase in revenue.
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Was that what it was, Jamie?
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Is it 30?
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And we're I think 30, 40% higher 30.
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So somewhere around there and revenue
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today
on a per available listing then back in
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2019 and
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that and to show two
and I thought you were going to ask this
00:10:42:02 - 00:10:46:07
like with the occupancy declines
like we're still higher than 2019 levels.
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So that sort of an indexing off the highs
00:10:50:06 - 00:10:54:09
we're still in and February is the lowest.
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And so we're only two and a half percent
higher than 2019.
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We didn't get that much higher in 2021,
2022.
00:11:01:06 - 00:11:05:25
And February is just not the month
where you're going to really accelerate
00:11:05:26 - 00:11:09:22
or produce a whole lot more people
to start traveling.
00:11:09:22 - 00:11:11:23
Just and given
the weather around the country.
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Yeah. Yeah. No, that makes sense.
00:11:13:11 - 00:11:16:00
And a thank you for calling me out on
not asking that question.
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Pop up.
00:11:18:01 - 00:11:20:02
Always the optimist that you are where I.
00:11:21:20 - 00:11:23:26
Know I think
but it's so important for folks right?
00:11:23:26 - 00:11:26:27
Like what's really to contextualize
what's declining versus
00:11:26:27 - 00:11:29:18
like just slow and steady growth
right now.
00:11:29:28 - 00:11:31:00
Okay, perfect.
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Well,
you all you and I both again, just because
00:11:34:25 - 00:11:37:27
we also probably are dreaming of
the beach, want to talk a little bit about
00:11:38:27 - 00:11:41:24
the economy and like spring break
and all that stuff.
00:11:42:01 - 00:11:44:14
I think we
I think we agreed to the economy first.
00:11:44:14 - 00:11:45:17
Again, guys, we prepare.
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I swear we prepare for this podcast.
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Do you want to talk about
some of the crazy stuff that happened?
00:11:52:15 - 00:11:54:04
Yeah, last minute.
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So I'll last week as we're
00:11:57:08 - 00:11:59:19
recording over the weekend,
00:12:00:12 - 00:12:03:28
but maybe I'll start with just
some of the headline economic figures.
00:12:04:23 - 00:12:07:01
Love it because
00:12:07:01 - 00:12:12:07
and that's where my head immediately
goes as I'm like
00:12:12:07 - 00:12:16:11
it are not in the consumer economy.
00:12:16:11 - 00:12:19:04
Discretionary spending that happens in
00:12:19:12 - 00:12:23:01
our industry is
00:12:23:01 - 00:12:26:02
really dependent
on people maintaining jobs
00:12:26:19 - 00:12:29:26
through further job
growth happening and people
00:12:29:26 - 00:12:34:23
having the wages and discretionary
income to spend on travel.
00:12:34:23 - 00:12:38:10
So and two metrics I'm still covering, I'm
00:12:38:20 - 00:12:41:08
monitoring most closely job growth.
00:12:41:21 - 00:12:46:06
Job growth has been amazing over the past
two months, right?
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I'm 517,000 new jobs in January,
00:12:50:11 - 00:12:53:16
311,000 new jobs in February
00:12:55:10 - 00:12:59:11
almost, and maybe too strong.
00:12:59:19 - 00:13:02:08
And so
00:13:02:11 - 00:13:04:12
I'm up until last week
00:13:04:12 - 00:13:07:14
and expectations
and sort of the market was
00:13:07:25 - 00:13:12:15
and we are going to go from raising
the Fed, raising rates of 25 basis points
00:13:12:29 - 00:13:15:16
and sort of maybe re accelerating rate
00:13:15:16 - 00:13:21:06
growth up to 50 basis points
while given the sort of really strong
00:13:21:06 - 00:13:26:27
job numbers, still persistently
high inflation, we saw point
00:13:26:27 - 00:13:30:07
5% month over month in January and CPI
00:13:30:08 - 00:13:33:09
point 4% month over month in February.
00:13:33:26 - 00:13:37:20
And we're still seeing a deceleration
in your over your growth.
00:13:37:20 - 00:13:40:23
Overall, we were only at 6%
00:13:40:23 - 00:13:43:07
headline inflation in February,
00:13:43:07 - 00:13:46:28
which is down, down significantly
from what we were seeing over the summer.
00:13:46:29 - 00:13:47:24
Right.
00:13:48:24 - 00:13:50:16
It's still looking like we could
00:13:50:16 - 00:13:52:24
get to 3% by the end of the year.
00:13:53:15 - 00:13:56:17
So I think we're still sort of
but according
00:13:56:17 - 00:14:00:27
to script for what we want to see,
00:14:01:17 - 00:14:06:01
but we're sort of wavering
and that I'm it's not decelerating.
00:14:06:21 - 00:14:12:10
Decelerating maybe at the rate that we had
seen, but I'm in November, December
00:14:13:08 - 00:14:16:10
and worrying the Fed a bit
00:14:17:11 - 00:14:21:25
but then sort of
that was all maybe thrown out the window
00:14:21:25 - 00:14:25:10
a bit with the collapse of Silicon
Valley bank.
00:14:26:18 - 00:14:29:07
Now that what I was alluding to which.
00:14:29:11 - 00:14:31:14
Yeah but
00:14:32:25 - 00:14:34:29
over the over the weekend
00:14:34:29 - 00:14:37:12
the sort of Fed and Treasury
00:14:37:12 - 00:14:41:16
sort of stepping
in, the FDIC taking over those banks,
00:14:42:01 - 00:14:44:20
deciding to sort of backstop
00:14:45:08 - 00:14:48:16
those deposits, making sure
00:14:48:16 - 00:14:51:11
all those depositors were fully in share
00:14:51:11 - 00:14:53:24
insured and having access to their money.
00:14:54:25 - 00:14:58:14
Really, we hadn't seen a bank fail.
00:14:58:17 - 00:14:59:04
Yeah.
00:14:59:26 - 00:15:01:20
In in years.
00:15:01:20 - 00:15:06:15
And Silicon Valley Bank
was the second largest bank failure we had
00:15:06:17 - 00:15:10:15
we had ever seen,
second only to Washington
00:15:10:15 - 00:15:13:04
Mutual back in 2008. So
00:15:14:20 - 00:15:16:04
and economists
00:15:16:04 - 00:15:18:24
will debate debate and are debating
00:15:19:11 - 00:15:24:01
whether or not it was necessary to prevent
sort of further contagion
00:15:24:24 - 00:15:27:20
in the regional sort of bank markets.
00:15:27:20 - 00:15:30:09
I think it was a great move
personally by the Fed
00:15:30:27 - 00:15:33:13
and the Treasury
to come in and sort of stop
00:15:34:11 - 00:15:35:26
further
00:15:37:07 - 00:15:39:17
and what could have been a crisis
00:15:40:13 - 00:15:45:01
in the banking market sort of spreading
further into the overall economy.
00:15:45:25 - 00:15:50:22
And it would have been a really tough spot
00:15:50:22 - 00:15:54:10
for the Fed to be in
if we had a full on banking crisis.
00:15:54:10 - 00:15:57:21
All the while rightfully,
it's still sort of
00:15:58:12 - 00:16:01:01
well above where we want it to be
00:16:01:01 - 00:16:04:26
because and the Fed wouldn't
necessarily have their tool
00:16:04:26 - 00:16:08:20
of lowering interest rates
to prop up these banks
00:16:08:20 - 00:16:11:26
to promote
00:16:11:28 - 00:16:14:22
more economic activity,
given that they're sort of
00:16:14:22 - 00:16:17:25
tightening interest rates
and wanting to slow economic activity.
00:16:17:25 - 00:16:21:05
So in the right move, in my opinion,
00:16:21:24 - 00:16:24:26
and one will look back
and and be happy that they did.
00:16:25:12 - 00:16:26:25
A lot a lot of levers.
00:16:26:25 - 00:16:29:09
They're right
lots of lots of balancing acts.
00:16:29:09 - 00:16:29:28
But thank you.
00:16:29:28 - 00:16:33:21
I always love when you remind us
what those metrics are that we should be
00:16:33:21 - 00:16:37:14
paying attention to for demand
and everything else with the economy.
00:16:37:14 - 00:16:39:11
That was a great synopsis.
00:16:39:11 - 00:16:43:25
I should challenge you to do
these things more often quickly. But
00:16:44:28 - 00:16:46:09
I can and
00:16:46:09 - 00:16:49:17
I know
we're going to jump into spring break, but
00:16:49:21 - 00:16:54:00
maybe one of the overall industry metrics
that I didn't mention, that is,
00:16:54:17 - 00:16:59:06
and our listeners will know
is my favorite guys.
00:16:59:06 - 00:17:01:03
Everybody, this is a quiz.
00:17:01:03 - 00:17:02:24
Remember what Jamie's favorite is?
00:17:02:24 - 00:17:04:19
Me to retail.
00:17:04:23 - 00:17:06:12
Is nights booked.
00:17:06:12 - 00:17:11:01
So how many reservation nights
were made during the month of February?
00:17:11:28 - 00:17:13:21
Comparing back to last February?
00:17:13:21 - 00:17:16:01
So in our metric of
00:17:18:05 - 00:17:21:10
sort of booking activity
and that's for future dates
00:17:21:10 - 00:17:28:06
not stays happening in February
and during February that was up 14.8%.
00:17:28:06 - 00:17:32:15
So maybe a slight deceleration
from January,
00:17:33:06 - 00:17:35:25
but I'm very much
00:17:36:26 - 00:17:40:08
in the bull's eye of what
we want to be seeing to sort of
00:17:40:28 - 00:17:45:09
and keeping up with and the sort of strong
level of supply growth rate
00:17:45:28 - 00:17:51:00
still introducing some
some declines and in occupancy. But
00:17:52:00 - 00:17:54:00
and broadly a good number.
00:17:54:22 - 00:17:59:11
So number sort of teased us up for I'm a
00:18:01:14 - 00:18:03:22
a good spring break
00:18:03:22 - 00:18:06:25
as a lot of those
and most of those bookings being made
00:18:07:05 - 00:18:10:25
in February
are for March and April travel.
00:18:10:25 - 00:18:13:17
So people gearing up for spring break
00:18:14:10 - 00:18:19:12
And I'm broadly it's it's
it's looking like it's
00:18:19:12 - 00:18:23:19
going to be a healthy spring break season
for most markets around the country.
00:18:23:21 - 00:18:25:19
I love that. Well, I love that.
00:18:25:19 - 00:18:29:29
Where where is it healthiest, Jamilla and
where where where are the people going?
00:18:29:29 - 00:18:31:08
I need to know where not to go now.
00:18:31:08 - 00:18:33:23
Can I?
00:18:33:23 - 00:18:37:13
So if you want to avoid the crowds, huh?
00:18:38:29 - 00:18:42:15
I'm I don't think it's maybe
00:18:44:15 - 00:18:47:00
a surprise to say
00:18:47:00 - 00:18:49:18
don't go to Disney during spring break.
00:18:49:18 - 00:18:52:07
Weird year.
00:18:52:07 - 00:18:53:22
Right? Right.
00:18:53:22 - 00:18:58:20
There are a lot of people planning
on going to Orlando.
00:18:59:13 - 00:18:59:24
It is.
00:18:59:24 - 00:19:06:06
There are top spring break market
sort of the Orlando Kissimmee area number
00:19:06:06 - 00:19:10:08
two, Phenix, Scottsdale, a big market
00:19:10:08 - 00:19:14:06
for spring spring training base. Not
00:19:17:11 - 00:19:19:01
I I've talked about this before.
00:19:19:01 - 00:19:21:02
I have to get spend
a spring training next year.
00:19:21:02 - 00:19:24:27
My husband, who you've heard of here,
honey, I'll get you there next year,
00:19:24:27 - 00:19:28:01
I promise.
00:19:28:01 - 00:19:31:25
So that was actually one of our strongest
demand growth markets due
00:19:31:25 - 00:19:36:22
to demand in Phenix, up almost 40%
for spring break travel year over year.
00:19:36:23 - 00:19:37:26
Crazy
00:19:39:00 - 00:19:40:25
Gatlinburg
00:19:41:15 - 00:19:44:01
coming in at number three,
sort of Gatlinburg Pigeon
00:19:44:01 - 00:19:47:04
Forge market demand up 17% year over year
00:19:48:09 - 00:19:50:16
and then rounding out the top five
00:19:50:16 - 00:19:55:01
sort of are some of the most popular
beach markets, Panama City
00:19:55:18 - 00:19:58:26
and Miami down in Florida.
00:19:58:26 - 00:20:00:20
Further growth there.
00:20:00:20 - 00:20:06:03
Miami while straw and number
00:20:06:03 - 00:20:10:15
45 market for spring break demand
only up 3%.
00:20:10:15 - 00:20:14:15
Their market had seen a lot of new supply
coming in Ryan Young overseas
00:20:14:24 - 00:20:17:18
seeing some pretty significant year
over year
00:20:17:18 - 00:20:21:01
declines
in occupancy and revenue per listing.
00:20:21:01 - 00:20:24:24
So great to see that
they're sort of maintaining that demand
00:20:25:11 - 00:20:28:20
but maybe not as much growth
that they'd like to see
00:20:28:20 - 00:20:31:24
in demand given how much new supply
that's coming into that market.
00:20:32:02 - 00:20:34:05
Now, That makes a lot of sense.
00:20:34:05 - 00:20:34:15
All right.
00:20:34:15 - 00:20:35:28
Well, good. All places.
00:20:35:28 - 00:20:37:23
I will avoid for spring break. That's
00:20:39:07 - 00:20:39:28
done and done.
00:20:39:28 - 00:20:42:17
I need I need a nice like
00:20:42:17 - 00:20:43:21
off the beat.
00:20:43:21 - 00:20:44:26
No problem with the only one.
00:20:44:26 - 00:20:47:18
Especially if you're
looking for a new market to invest in
00:20:48:05 - 00:20:51:20
sake just up and coming,
you know, like a little rising star.
00:20:52:14 - 00:20:56:24
And I think we talked about enough
of those sort of rising stars
00:20:57:12 - 00:21:00:25
last market
why for for best places to invest.
00:21:00:28 - 00:21:03:28
That I promise
I wasn't trying to make you do best places
00:21:03:28 - 00:21:05:10
to invest plug.
00:21:07:01 - 00:21:10:07
Yeah I mean some of the maybe
00:21:11:07 - 00:21:13:14
rising star markets for growth
00:21:14:02 - 00:21:16:19
if if maybe that's what you're hinting to.
00:21:16:19 - 00:21:19:19
What I was see.
00:21:21:12 - 00:21:22:13
Many of them,
00:21:22:13 - 00:21:26:12
like Phenix,
are in some of the larger cities so Jersey
00:21:26:25 - 00:21:29:24
City, Newark area, their fastest
00:21:29:24 - 00:21:33:15
growing market for spring break.
00:21:33:15 - 00:21:36:18
Not a ton of people
going there for spring break, similar
00:21:36:18 - 00:21:39:23
to Minneapolis, which was number three.
00:21:40:13 - 00:21:43:07
Chicago coming in at number five.
00:21:43:07 - 00:21:45:21
So Hamptons, they're number four.
00:21:45:21 - 00:21:48:14
So some decent growth
00:21:48:29 - 00:21:52:21
in some of the larger cities
as urban travel comes back.
00:21:52:21 - 00:21:53:08
Yeah.
00:21:53:09 - 00:21:56:20
Are some of the cities
that it saw some of the strongest
00:21:58:06 - 00:22:00:12
ADR growth too so
00:22:00:12 - 00:22:03:10
Boston DC
00:22:04:28 - 00:22:08:04
seeing over 15% ADR growth for
00:22:09:25 - 00:22:10:14
spring break.
00:22:10:14 - 00:22:14:17
So finally, some of those big cities
getting pricing power back,
00:22:14:29 - 00:22:17:08
you know, to capitalize on on
00:22:17:26 - 00:22:21:14
both domestic and international travel
coming back to these cities.
00:22:21:22 - 00:22:22:17
100%.
00:22:22:17 - 00:22:26:18
Yeah,
those are some places I'd go to for sure.
00:22:26:18 - 00:22:29:27
Maybe not Chicago only because it's cold
until like June there.
00:22:29:27 - 00:22:32:01
But anyway, I digress.
00:22:32:19 - 00:22:33:13
All right.
00:22:33:28 - 00:22:34:12
Goodness.
00:22:34:12 - 00:22:36:28
We covered so much.
00:22:38:06 - 00:22:38:23
Did we?
00:22:38:23 - 00:22:40:13
What do we what did we miss?
00:22:40:13 - 00:22:43:02
I think we were
we overindexed on speed. It
00:22:45:14 - 00:22:49:04
I, I will say and I did
00:22:49:04 - 00:22:52:25
we talked a bit about
and my concern about supply.
00:22:52:25 - 00:22:53:06
Yeah.
00:22:53:10 - 00:22:55:27
How we've seen a a reacceleration
00:22:57:25 - 00:23:00:17
maybe give some caveat to that because
00:23:02:05 - 00:23:06:04
that's something that and is playing out
differently across the country.
00:23:06:05 - 00:23:08:05
Very very very good point.
00:23:08:23 - 00:23:13:26
We are seeing a D celebration
and further deceleration
00:23:13:26 - 00:23:17:22
in supply growth and a lot of the
coastal and mountain markets,
00:23:18:20 - 00:23:19:20
those are some of the areas
00:23:19:20 - 00:23:22:22
that have been hit hardest
in terms of the occupancy declines.
00:23:22:22 - 00:23:25:08
Right thing
00:23:25:08 - 00:23:27:12
and year over year declines
00:23:27:12 - 00:23:30:29
in revenue per available listing.
00:23:30:29 - 00:23:34:14
And those are ones
where we're clearly seeing
00:23:36:06 - 00:23:38:13
a deceleration and listing growth,
00:23:38:13 - 00:23:41:00
which I think is going to be
00:23:42:17 - 00:23:45:03
helpful for people
operating those markets.
00:23:45:03 - 00:23:49:22
Definitely that we're not seeing
further investment into it right now,
00:23:49:22 - 00:23:54:01
giving giving those markets
some time to absorb all the supply
00:23:54:01 - 00:23:57:18
that's come in.
00:23:57:18 - 00:24:02:23
We are seeing further acceleration though,
in some of the urban suburban,
00:24:02:23 - 00:24:07:26
some of the midsize and still in the small
city are rural areas around the country.
00:24:08:11 - 00:24:10:15
So that's where
00:24:10:15 - 00:24:13:03
if you're operating an urban,
00:24:13:03 - 00:24:15:25
it is broadly getting absorbed, though.
00:24:15:25 - 00:24:18:26
And this winter and winter is tough with
00:24:20:17 - 00:24:20:28
urban
00:24:20:28 - 00:24:23:23
areas because demand's not great, right?
00:24:24:06 - 00:24:27:15
As you said,
not really looking to go to Chicago.
00:24:28:14 - 00:24:30:16
Chicago, Chicago.
00:24:31:03 - 00:24:31:26
Yeah.
00:24:32:13 - 00:24:35:00
And many of those markets sort of are
00:24:35:10 - 00:24:40:14
propped up in the spring, summer of fall
as people are sort of
00:24:40:26 - 00:24:44:29
traveling to the cities, visiting friends
and relatives.
00:24:44:29 - 00:24:48:04
They do see the benefit of sort of longer
term travel.
00:24:48:18 - 00:24:50:26
So those days, 28 days are longer.
00:24:51:26 - 00:24:54:13
Really big benefit once we get into
00:24:55:12 - 00:24:57:16
sort of broadly
00:24:58:00 - 00:24:59:02
migration season.
00:24:59:02 - 00:25:02:02
Is that what you call it
when people start moving off?
00:25:03:00 - 00:25:05:00
You? Snowbirds like the people.
00:25:05:00 - 00:25:09:15
Know saying like, if I was going to move
to Denver, like, oh, typically
00:25:09:15 - 00:25:12:12
don't do it during the school year
doing winter, right?
00:25:12:18 - 00:25:15:03
Summer over the summer, Yeah.
00:25:15:03 - 00:25:20:14
So as people start to move, short term
rentals are being used more and more for
00:25:20:23 - 00:25:24:15
for temporary housing, things like that.
00:25:24:15 - 00:25:28:13
So that can be a big benefit
for the urban areas during during spring
00:25:28:13 - 00:25:30:27
summer periods. I love this.
This is great.
00:25:30:27 - 00:25:33:16
Well that was some excellent knowledge
you just dropped on us.
00:25:33:25 - 00:25:34:10
I think it's right.
00:25:34:10 - 00:25:35:03
I mean, like,
00:25:35:03 - 00:25:37:16
you know, I'm always struck
by the nuance of the business
00:25:37:16 - 00:25:39:28
and how much is kind of goes
back to your strategy, Right.
00:25:39:28 - 00:25:43:19
So like, yeah, great to see that
there's some relief in some of the more
00:25:44:08 - 00:25:47:19
popular destination areas
potentially as folks decide that
00:25:47:19 - 00:25:51:15
that might not be the best place
for them to start their business.
00:25:51:15 - 00:25:53:23
And then in those areas
where supply is growing,
00:25:53:23 - 00:25:55:20
I think it feels like
definitely an opportunity
00:25:55:20 - 00:25:57:23
if you are in that market
or even if you're thinking about going in
00:25:57:23 - 00:26:01:08
that market is to get in early
with a good competitive advantage.
00:26:01:08 - 00:26:04:26
As always, we've talked a lot and we'll
talk more about it, I think, soon,
00:26:05:13 - 00:26:08:00
how important the star ratings are
and just doubling down on that
00:26:08:00 - 00:26:10:29
guest experience, making sure that you're
standing out in the crowd.
00:26:11:29 - 00:26:13:06
And then I had a great
00:26:13:06 - 00:26:15:29
interview the other day with Kirby Atwell,
00:26:17:04 - 00:26:19:20
and he was talking about
I mean, his strategy is completely
00:26:19:20 - 00:26:20:27
different from so many, right?
00:26:20:27 - 00:26:23:22
He's just finding markets
where there's slow and steady demand.
00:26:24:01 - 00:26:27:04
And to your point, it's not just about
like, hey, I wanted to go to the beach.
00:26:27:04 - 00:26:30:24
It's like, you know, it's a college town
where people are visiting or is there just
00:26:30:25 - 00:26:35:01
a couple little draws or he's
getting people that are moving in the mix.
00:26:35:01 - 00:26:36:27
So just a reminder to folks,
00:26:36:27 - 00:26:40:05
there's a whole bunch of different ways
that you can do this that fits with what
00:26:40:05 - 00:26:45:00
sort of you are expecting to get out of it
in terms of strategy and approach.
00:26:46:02 - 00:26:48:02
And let's let's talk more about that
00:26:48:02 - 00:26:51:10
next time, Jamie, because again, the
the mandate for this episode was
00:26:52:16 - 00:26:55:23
short and snackable short and snackable
an alliteration.
00:26:55:23 - 00:26:58:01
You know how I like those.
00:26:59:08 - 00:27:01:18
Well, it's it's been a pleasure, Brian,
as always.
00:27:02:00 - 00:27:04:10
Yes. It's
so great to catch up with you, as always.
00:27:04:22 - 00:27:07:15
And I'm sure we'll see
you on the road again soon.